Geomechanical basin modeling for stress and pore pressure prediction by constraining evolving properties of seal rocks through stress-induced permeability

Most sedimentary rocks experience some form of inelastic deformation, especially in areas with structural complexity, leading to high risk of migration and seal quality. Existing studies using basin modeling techniques show inaccurate pressure predictions typically due to assuming elastic, vertically-oriented deformation. My research uses an evolutionary geomechanical approach to model seal rocks with evolving physical properties as a function of stress and fracture formation. These overpressure-driven fractures allow episodic discharge of excess fluid and consequently pressure dissipation from fractured elements via a permeability modification function that enhances flow transmissivity. A fully coupled geomechanical-fluid simulator accommodates both compaction and shear dilatancy and handles large strain accumulation through geologic time. This innovative workflow enables modeling with stress-induced permeability changes and has significant implications for predicting hydrocarbon migration efficiency and expulsion from fractured shales.